Episode 29: Is Career Planning Illusory Nonsense? (November 5, 2017)
Teruyuki Fujita, University of Tsukuba
Cathy N. Davidson, a renowned scholar at the City University of New York, pointed out that "fully 65 percent of today's grade-school kids may end up doing work that hasn't been invented yet," and this was widely circulated in Japan. In the U.S., there was criticism that the basis for specifying the percentage as 65% was not provided, and for a while, there was a hot debate over the authenticity of the statement. However, there is no doubt that technological innovations such as AI will rapidly change the types of jobs and occupations needed in society. Also, findings of the study by Michael A. Osborne and his colleagues at Oxford University that nearly half of all jobs in the U.S. could be automated in the next 10 to 20 years attracted public attention in Japan.
It is no surprise that changes in the social environment have a great impact on the way people work. For example, fearing the loss of jobs due to the Industrial Revolution, British workers in the early 19th century protested by destroying textile machinery. The industrial and occupational structure of postwar Japan has also undergone a drastic transformation in the past 70 years. Immediately after the end of the war, about half of the workforce was engaged in the primary industries, but today, more than 70% of the workforce is involved in the tertiary industries. We have been and will continue to be, destined to live with unpredictable changes in society.
So, is it unrealistic to "plan" your career under such circumstances?
With the rapid progress of AI, it is understandable that many of us are
tempted to stop our thinking and say, "There is no point in planning
our future paths when we don't even know what changes might be around the
corner." However, in this episode, I would like to suggest that we
should develop our career planning skills just because we are living in
such a time. (Sound preachy? Let me try not to deliver an empty homily.)
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First, I should note that it has been construed for quite some time that people do not always make career choices according to their future plans (rather, they choose their jobs by contingencies).
Many of us know that Donald E. Super was a world-renowned researcher who
had a tremendous influence on subsequent career development studies and
that in 1957 he published a systematic synthesis of his early theories,
The Psychology of Careers. However, the following year, in 1958, a British researcher S. M. Chown
surveyed 192 grammar school students and published the results, which revealed
that many of them did not make planned career choices and chose their jobs
based on coincidental reasons. This shows that there were opposing arguments
from the early stage toward the understanding of career development in
a way similar to climbing a staircase.
John D. Krumboltz is one of the scholars who clearly highlighted the reality that careers are shaped by contingencies, and his theory continues to capture the attention of researchers today. In his book published in 2002, he presented the Planned Happenstance Theory, which explains that around 80% of our careers are structured by unanticipated "happenstance" and that we are able to draw them to us.
"Planned happenstance" - a contradiction in terms if you think about it normally, but Krumboltz points out the importance of curiosity, persistence, optimism, flexibility, and risk-taking in making the best of the turning points in life that come in the form of coincidences.
Ah, that's so true. I also am convinced that there are many futures to be opened up by throwing yourself into coincidences.
Well, No...I don't mean to criticize the world-famous Dr. Krumboltz's theory at all,
but you also need something to be the "source" of your energy to keep
trying even if you fail or to act without fear of risk. If you don't have
an opportunity to believe "Okay, this is it!", we will overlook
encounters that come our way in the form of small coincidences. Also, even
if you do act in response to these, you will be discouraged and say, "It's
not going to work," when you face a trivial problem.
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There is an English phrase "Seize the fortune by the forelock."
It is derived from Kairos, the god of luck in Greek mythology, who appears
out of nowhere and runs away quickly, with only front hair and a bald back
of his head.
When you hear your internal voice, "Here comes the god of luck!",
don't hesitate to grab his forelock and pull him closer, or you will miss
your chance. What's more, it's not easy to identify Kairos as the god of
luck just by looking at him from the front. It's not a matter of what other
people may think, but it's a matter of judging for yourself. You have to
make an instant judgment that this encounter is important. In other words,
you will not be able to hear your voice, "Okay, this is it!",
without thinking about what you should do, what you can do, and what you
want to do, or without having a direction/goal of your career in mind.
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Louis Pasteur, a famous 19th-century French biologist and bacteriologist,
said in one of his speeches, "Chance helps only those who are ready
for it." The original text is "Dans les champs de l'observation le hasard ne favorise que les esprits
préparés." The verbatim translation would be "In the field of observation
(i.e., the world of research), chance favors only the prepared mind."
In any case, a strong awareness of what you want to find and what you are
pursuing is the foundation that allows you to continue your experiments
and to notice minute changes that seem to occur by chance. If you don't
have a mind for seeking, you won't be able to encounter opportunities even
if they come in front of you.
Also, I should note that Peter F. Drucker, the father of modern management,
wrote the following in his book Management: Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices published in 1973. "Growth requires internal preparation... When the
opportunity for rapid growth will come in the life of a company cannot
be predicted. But a company has to be ready. If a company is not ready,
opportunity moves on and knocks at somebody else's door." That's exactly
what "Seize the fortune by the forelock" tells us.
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Here, let's shift our eyes to today's Japan. A singer-songwriter Shikao
Suga, in the lyrics of his vocal group's song "The Goal of Your Dreams
(Yume no Goal)," addresses the audience, "What was your dream you wanted to
realize?" He then lists several names of professions and states, "Those
are mere names of jobs, not the name of the path you take."
The specific job titles and occupations will change considerably in the rapid social transformation. Some of them will end their social roles in the future due to decreasing demand. On the other hand, numerous occupations and professions will emerge to meet new needs.
What is important is to open yourself up to and participate in a changing world, thinking about how you want to contribute to society (or the individuals and groups that make up that society) by exercising your strengths through "work," rather than simply replacing your career plan with a list of names of jobs to be taken.
The goods, services, or information that you engage and provide as a professional
will reach the hands of someone, and feelings of the person such as "Thank
you," "I appreciate it," or "I'm satisfied" will
be transformed into compensation and become financial resources to support
your own life.
In the end, you can live as a professional when your work brings a smile to someone's face. It is important to look at your career while asking yourself: "Who do I want to be smiling? How do I want to achieve that goal?"
By catching the sudden and unexpected appearance of the god of luck amid
drastic change, grasping his forelock, and continuing to make efforts to
transform yourself, you will be able to find your path to pursue. What
you need is to have an interest in your future (and the society that frames
it), a career plan to recognize the god of luck (your turning opportunities),
and an attitude to keep learning. Naturally, you cannot master these overnight.
Systematic career education programs throughout all stages of school and
beyond are truly what is expected.
(Translated and uploaded on September 19, 2021)
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